AHEAD OF THE CURVE Reasons Behind the Market's Recent Revival Friday, July 30, 2010 Extending the Bush-era tax cuts will help the economy, stocks. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE The Case Against Gold Falls Apart Friday, July 23, 2010 Stocks are no match for gold at the moment. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Gold Remains Great for the Long Haul Friday, July 16, 2010 The reasons that gold bears use just don't add up. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Why This Isn't Like 1938 -- At Least Not Yet Friday, July 9, 2010 Stock prices show we've dodged another depression, but toxic, antibusiness rhetoric and policy errors like the Dodd-Frank bill are hurting the still-fragile recovery. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Don't Worry About the Economy Friday, July 9, 2010 The talk of a double-dip recession doesn't add up. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE It Was a Good Week for European Banks Friday, July 2, 2010 A funny thing happened on the way to the collapse. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Federal Reserve Speak -- Translated Friday, June 25, 2010 The economy is muddling along, which means stocks probably will too. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Buy Bonds Now Friday, June 18, 2010 Interest rates will stay low for a while, so take some risk. Here are the best bond plays. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE How the Oil Spill Is Sabotaging Stocks Friday, June 11, 2010 Watch for a big rally if the catastrophe is contained soon. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Thanks for Nothing, China. Really. Friday, May 28, 2010 China's nod to European bonds defuses a crisis, for now. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE What Was Scott Brown Thinking? Friday, May 21, 2010 His vote allows the financial reform bill to move through Congress. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Even at These Prices, Keep Hold of Your Gold Friday, May 14, 2010 The price of gold has been soaring, but don't sell just yet. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Stocks Slide -- It's About Time Friday, May 7, 2010 The market's craziness doesn't change my suggestion -- buy gold. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE The Risk-Free, Fantastic Investment. Maybe. Friday, April 30, 2010 Greece's debt problems could be providing a great opportunity. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE The Goldman Case: What You Need to Know Friday, April 23, 2010 The SEC has only one bone to pick with the Wall Street giant. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE The Economy Has Rebounded! Now What? Friday, April 16, 2010 Now that the economy has come back, can the market keep rallying? MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL George W. Bush's 2010 Tax Miracle Thursday, April 15, 2010 Mass conversions to Roth IRAs could produce a gusher of revenue, reducing our budget deficit by as much as half next year. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE The U.S. Economy Is Growing, and Struggling Friday, April 9, 2010 The latest data show we aren't out of the woods yet, job-wise. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Congress Hates Capitalism, It Seems Friday, April 2, 2010 CEOs are called to task for following the new health care law. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Health Care 'Change' Will Leave You With Less Friday, March 26, 2010 Reform is bringing new taxes that could kill the economy. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE The Dumbest Thing We Could Do Now? Friday, March 19, 2010 Our politicians could put the kibosh on our economic recovery. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Was the Big Rally a Grand Illusion? Friday, March 5, 2010 The market's gains since last March were built on inflation. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Some Ominous Economic Signs Friday, February 26, 2010 By some measures, the U.S. economy is slipping again. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Thinking of Investing Abroad? Think Again Monday, February 22, 2010 Don't send all of your money to other countries. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Send a Thank You Card to Tim Geithner Friday, February 12, 2010 One year ago this week he saved the world by doing nothing. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Republicans and the Populist Temptation Tuesday, February 9, 2010 The reaction to Scott Brown's victory has been a lurch toward antibusiness rhetoric. The stock market doesn't like it. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Panic, Debt and Unemployment Friday, February 5, 2010 How a confluence of events pushed stocks down. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Four More Years of Ben Friday, January 29, 2010 Bernanke's reappointment is good for the country, but might not help stocks. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE A Republican Won, So Why the Selloff? Friday, January 22, 2010 Stocks usually like divided government, but now there's a curveball. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Turn Global Warming On Its Head Friday, January 15, 2010 A savvy investor could make money if the Earth is actually cooling. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE The Economy's Improving, but Stocks Might Not Friday, January 8, 2010 Profits may grow, but the market's value already reflects that. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Why Taxing Stock Trades Is a Really Bad Idea Wednesday, January 6, 2010 Everyday investors shouldn't be punished for a subprime fiasco fueled by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE The Best and Worst Investments of 2009 Thursday, December 31, 2009 The best and worst investments of 2009. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE The Market Speaks: Change Isn't Good Thursday, December 24, 2009 Here's to the Obama plans that went nowhere. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Taking a Look at Bernanke's "Plan" Friday, December 18, 2009 The Fed chairman's moves leave investors with only one choice. MORE>>
		ACTIVE TRADER The Unseen Danger of Leveraged ETFs Thursday, December 17, 2009 How these rapidly selling products can crush you over time. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Gold's Bump in the Road Friday, December 11, 2009 Just because gold has been down recently doesn't mean its rally has ended. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE The Consensus Is...No Consensus Friday, December 4, 2009 There's no agreement on where this economy is headed. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Bank Stocks' Recent Woes Could Be Contagious Friday, November 27, 2009 Increased regulation is hurting financials, and threatens the bull market. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE The Rally Was Nice While It Lasted... Friday, November 20, 2009 Hope you enjoyed that stock surge. It's going to end soon. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Gold Keeps Shining Friday, November 13, 2009 My long-standing "best idea" investment continues to be the best-performing asset in the world. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE $300,000 of Gold, in the Palm of My Hand Friday, November 6, 2009  A trip to the Federal Reserve reaffirms my belief in owning gold. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE What We Learned From the GDP Number Friday, October 30, 2009 Despite what some believe, the consumer remains undisputed king. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Bank Regulation Won't End at Exec Pay Friday, October 23, 2009 Leverage limits could put the public interest at odds with investors. MORE>>
		NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE Weak Dollar, Oblivious Treasury? Tuesday, October 20 2009 Conservatives can take comfort in the fact that the Treasury Department ’s approach to the dollar is both realistic and sensible. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE The Dollar's Fall: Deal With It Friday, October 16, 2009 There are many forces pushing the dollar down, but investors can cope. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE A Great Start to Earnings Season, but... Friday, October 9, 2009 Alcoa started promising, but the market is still too rich. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Stocks Are Down? It's About Time! Friday, October 2, 2009 A stock pullback is inevitable, but it's not necessarily bad. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Thank Goodness We Can Borrow Again Friday, September 25, 2009 A healthy credit market means the economy can mend itself. MORE>>
		REASON MAGAZINE Inflation Returns October, 2009 The Fed fears unemployment more than rising prices. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Just Remember, Everything Is Possible Friday, September 18, 2009 Gold at $2,000 and 1970s-style inflation? It's not impossible. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Inflation's Early Indicator? Gold Friday, September 11, 2009 Alan Greenspan is watching gold. So should you. MORE>>
		NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE Monetary Muddle Thursday, September 10, 2009 If the Fed errs on the side of ease, significantly higher inflation will be inevitable. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE The Crisis Investing Scorecard Friday, September 4. 2009 Donald Luskin identifies some investing lessons learned during the last year. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Lessons From the Rally: Don't Be Greedy Friday, August 28. 2009 Now that the market is up 50% in six months, here's what to do. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL In Defense of "Flash" Trading Thursday, August 27, 2009 It's no different from selling your house without a real estate listing. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Whole Foods-Style Health Care Friday, August 21. 2009 How the supermarket's plan trumps Obama's ideas. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE The Must-Read Thriller of the Summer Friday, August 14. 2009 A new book reveals the Fed's moves during the financial crisis. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE This Bull Needs a Breather Friday, August 7, 2009 The stock market's rally has been impressive, but don't expect it to go much higher soon. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE How Health-Care "Reform" Could Kill the Market's Rally Friday, July 31, 2009 The current proposals will only lead to higher taxes and debt. MORE>>
		THE WALL STREET JOURNAL Can the Fed Identify Bubbles Before They Happen? Wednesday, July 29, 2009 The New York Fed’s president says it can. If only it were that easy. MORE>>
		NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE The Beginning of the End? Tuesday, July 28, 2009 Are we through the worst of this economic downturn? MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Stocks Rally on Death of Health-Care Reform Friday, July 24, 2009 Earnings season proves why higher taxes are bad for investors. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE This Health-Care Reform Might Tax Us to Death Friday, July 17, 2009 The current health-care reform plan will be financially onerous to everyone. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE The Obama Administration's Six-Month Checkup Friday, July 10, 2009 Obama ended the banking crisis, but let's hope he doesn't try to do more. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Deciphering the Fed's Cryptic Messages Friday, June 26, 2009 The Fed seems less worried about deflation, which is good for stocks. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Where Do We Go From Here? Friday, June 12, 2009 We're past the worst-case scenario, but the future's uncertain. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Good News Has Arrived for Investors Friday, June 5, 2009 Analyst profit estimates are up, and that's a good sign for the market. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Attention, Economic Optimists: Not So Fast Friday, May 29, 2009 The economy is starting to revive, but several obstacles could keep it from getting much better. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE The Mysteries of the Treasury Market Revealed! Friday, May 22, 2009 Why China won't dump our bonds. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Acclaimed Economist Says Recession Is Over Friday, May 15, 2009 Peak unemployment claims show the recession may be over. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Crisis Averted, Investors Are Wondering What's Next Friday, May 8, 2009 We'll be living with the consequences of government intervention for years. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Investors Are Scared, and That's the Good News Friday, May 1, 2009 The main issue with our economy is the reluctant investor. But that can be fixed. MORE>>
		NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE TARP Looking More Criminal by the Minute Friday, April 24, 2009 The issue of TARP corruption may now extend from corporate CEOs and federal regulators to New York’s attorney general. MORE>>
		HARD ASSET INVESTOR The Upside-Down Bell Curve Friday, April 24, 2009 HardAssetsInvestor.com caught up with Don to get his take on the outlook for gold and inflation. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE In the Face of Inflation, Gold's Luster Still Shines Friday, April 24, 2009 The Federal Reserve's balance sheet bodes well for gold prices. MORE>>
		AHEAD OF THE CURVE Stocks Have Bottomed, but Don't Get Too Excited Friday, April 17, 2009 The upside for stocks is limited so long as Washington keeps pushing its "fixes." MORE>>
		NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE Next Steps Monday, January 26, 2009 What, if anything, we should be doing to buttress the financial system. MORE>>
		NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE Regrets? Monday, December 22, 2008 TARP, reconsidered. MORE>>
		NATIONAL REVIEW Death by Rescue Monday, November 17, 2008 How botched bailouts doomed companies that didn't need to fail. MORE>>
		KRUGMAN TRUTH SQUAD Krugman’s Posthumous Nobel Tuesday, October 14, 2008 This year’s prize in economics goes to an economist who died a decade ago. MORE>>

		WALL STREET JOURNAL Gold Investing Really Does Belong to the Stone Age Monday, July 21, 2010 The other day I wrote an article about why I think gold is a worthless rock. Over at SmartMoney, a sister company to the Wall Street Journal and wsj.com, Don Luskin asked some valid questions about my position. I’ve known Don for years and have even broken bread with him (or steaks, since he didn’t eat carbs at the time). So I’m more than happy to educate my colleague. Don asked how I chose the dates I used to measure gold’s performance. The specific dates don’t really matter to me. From 1800 to 1970, gold had a negative return adjusted for inflation. Then we got off the gold standard, and it rocketed up to its all-time high over the next decade. Since then, inflation-adjusted, it’s been downhill. It would have to double from here in order to gain parity with where it was 30 years ago. Don asks if I know what the S&P 500 has returned since the 1800s. Professor Robert Shiller at Yale has the data for 1871 to the present for the stock market. Here’s a summary. It shows how stocks have returned 7.11% since 1871, inflation adjusted. Gold, by comparison, has returned less than 1% per year... Don asks: If it’s a “fear metal,” which is what I call it, then why didn’t it go down in 2008? In 2008 we had the worst liquidity crisis in history. It was a liquidity crisis more than a fear crisis. All money redeemed from every asset class, including gold, and went to cash, which is why the dollar strengthened. Now, we don’t have a liquidity crisis. Instead we have an oil spill crisis, we have financial regulation, we have health care, we have rising taxes… in other words, we have fear. I’m afraid, at least. But I’m not afraid that all the banks in the world will go bankrupt. I point out that stocks are an inflation hedge. Don asks why they weren’t an inflation hedge in the 1970s. He says gold is a better inflation hedge. In the 1970s, about 10% of the S&P 500’s revenues came from abroad. Now it’s about 40%. So U.S. companies do a lot better now than they did in the ’70s when the dollar weakens. Stocks and companies change, adapt, grow. Gold never changes. Between 1968 and 2007 the correlation between gold and CPI was a measly 0.14.
		WALL STREET JOURNAL The Sacred Religions of Wall Street Monday, July 20, 2010 In America, which was founded on the principle of freedom of worship, many people follow the whims of the latest religion. This happens even in investing. Here are some of the religions that have developed on Wall Street and their main characteristics... - The Church of One True Gold: Do NOT mess with these guys. I posted an article on why I think Gold is the worst investment ever and my inbox immediately filled up with hate mail. Don Luskin is one of my oldest and dearest friends, and even he attempted to smash me to pieces with various arguments on why Gold is good.
		CNBC The Kudlow Report Friday, July 19, 2010
		USA TODAY Comparisons to the Great Depression keep popping up Monday, July 19, 2010 NEW YORK — The images of bread lines, dust storms and squatters' camps are missing in the aftermath of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression... Yet comparisons to the woeful 1930s continue to pop up in Wall Street research reports, newspaper op-ed pieces, doomsday books and the financial blogosphere... Consider: In a recent note to clients, David Rosenberg, chief strategist at Gluskin Sheff, ticks off a slew of similarities between then and now under the heading, "Daring to Compare Today to the '30s." Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at Trend Macrolytics, penned an op-ed piece, "Why This Isn't Like 1938 — At Least Not Yet." In late June, Paul Krugman, professor of economics and international affairs at Princeton University and an op-ed columnist for The New York Times, zeroed in on the issue twice under provocative headlines: "That '30s Feeling" and "The Third Depression." Why all the hand-wringing over the '30s? "To focus people on risk and remind them that it is way too early to declare victory," Luskin says. "It is prudent to learn from past errors so we don't repeat them." ..."The only way to get out of debt is to earn money," Luskin says. "The only way to get out of recession is to grow. If you kill growth, you are" in trouble. ...Another reason to be upbeat about the market's future is the fact that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is a student of the Depression, Luskin says. And that means Bernanke is unlikely to repeat the mistakes made in the 1930s that choked off growth. Bernanke won't likely tighten interest rates too quickly or drain liquidity out of the system too fast, as such moves would jeopardize the recovery. Luskin doesn't see a double dip, nor does he see new highs for stocks anytime soon. ...In periods of great volatility, where stocks have the potential to post huge gains — and huge losses — it makes sense to put only half the money you would normally devote to stocks in the market, Luskin says. Thus, you will be able to book gains if stocks rally. And you will lose half as much if stocks plunge.
		WALL STREET JOURNAL We're Already Repeating the Policy Mistakes of 1937 Monday, July 19, 2010 The most striking aspect of Donald Luskin's comparison of recent stock market returns to returns in the late 1930s ("Why This Isn't Like 1938—At Least Not Yet," op-ed, July 9) is how low the investor bar currently is set for positive surprises. The fact that so many have breathed a sigh of relief because Democrats moved only part way toward socialized medicine or nationalized banking shows how far to the left the national debate has drifted. The 1937 "recession within the Depression" was, in Mr. Luskin's view, triggered by a set of policy mistakes: premature Federal Reserve tightening, increased taxes, cuts in government spending, and accelerated antibusiness rhetoric and regulation. We already know that taxes will go up in 2011 as the Bush tax cuts expire, and that regulations are growing at a geometric clip, particularly in the health-care and financial sectors. An op-ed the same day by John Fund ("The Obama-Pelosi Lame Duck Strategy") raises the specter of a Democratic lame-duck legislative blitzkrieg that would rival FDR's mistakes in his second term. Mr. Fund mentions the possibilities of new taxes (beyond the known 2011 increases), some form of unionization card check and an energy tax bill that in House conference could morph into cap and trade, i.e., most of the bullets that Mr. Luskin thinks we've dodged. Greg Powell Roanoke, Va. Whether the stock market in 2010 continues to trace the downward track it did in 1937-38 hinges on the Obama administration's ability and willingness to keep its FDR-type antibusiness impulses in check. Corporations are wary; they now hold more cash (nearly $2 trillion) than at any point on record. Investors in stocks are wary; if the Bush tax cuts expire in 2011, each dollar of corporate profits paid in dividends will be taxed at about 68% in total (combining the top marginal corporate and individual tax rates, including federal, state and Medicare taxes). Job creators are wary; a graph in the Journal on July 10 (accompanying "Debt, Bank Troubles Leave U.S. Trailing in Job Growth") shows U.S. cumulative job growth lagging far behind its major global competitors, with the gap widening in the past 18 months. In order to dodge a repeat of 1937-38, the Obama administration ought to take meaningful steps now to encourage capital formation and investment in technology and jobs. The projected split of (double-taxed) dividends in 2011, with 68% of each dollar going to the government and 32% to the investor (who is assuming all equity risk) is as foolish as the Undistributed Profits Tax was in the midst of the Great Depression. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, but repeating FDR's economic errors is carrying things a bit too far. Alan Rose Naples, Fla.
		CNBC The Kudlow Report Friday, July 9, 2010
		CNBC The Kudlow Report Friday, July 6, 2010
		CNBC The Kudlow Report Friday, June 18, 2010
		USA TODAY Investors' sky-high fear index may mean time to buy stocks Tuesday, June 1, 2010 Don Luskin, chief investment officer at Trend Macrolytics, is less bullish. He says the "stench of panic is off," but says stocks will have a tough time eclipsing their April highs. "It is expecting a lot to expect any big upside in stocks, especially when we just came off an 80% rally," he says. But he doesn't expect a big fall, either: "Huge positive forces and huge negative forces are canceling each other out."
		BUSINESSWEEK The Sun Also Sets Tuesday, April 24, 2010 "In the U.S., we have no living precedent for this," says Donald Luskin, chief investment officer at strategy firm Trend Macrolytics, whose search for domestic parallels to this credit crisis took him all the way back to 1907. "We have had a living laboratory for it in Japan for the past 15 years. But in the U.S., we're all attuned to the little upticks in metrics that don't necessarily inform much." In other words, we seek auguries where there are none by comparing traditional business cycle statistics such as payrolls and housing starts to once-in-a-lifetime lows from late 2008 and early 2009. Luskin predicts the market will be range-bound for at least five more years as companies and consumers shed debt. "This is not a particularly bearish view," he says. "It's just the expansion-less, low-return world we're now in." Luskin's unenthusiastic outlook—which contrasts with the prevailing optimism among Wall Street strategists in a May 25 Bloomberg survey—brings to mind the "new normal" paradigm coined last year by Bill Gross and Mohamed El-Erian at Pimco, the bond giant. The idea is that a bitter confluence of deleveraging and reduced consumption and employment will necessarily bring a long period of low growth and low returns. In the absence of a healthy consumer, the neo-normalists point out, there is no other driver to magically propel the economy.
		WALL STREET JOURNAL Yes, the Right Figure Was $8 Billion Tuesday, April 24, 2010 In an April 15 opinion piece, "George W. Bush's 2010 Tax Miracle," Donald L. Luskin writes that "According to an eyewitness who spoke on condition of anonymity, $8 billion was the amount needed to make the budget math work in order to be able to extend the Bush tax cuts under filibuster-proof reconciliation rules—so that's the amount they [the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation] came up with." I can assure your readers that Mr. Luskin's anonymous eyewitness is incorrect. The staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation makes every effort to produce an unbiased estimate of each proposed change in the nation's tax law based on the best available information and accounting for possible changes in taxpayer behavior. Estimates are not created for the members of Congress based on the need to satisfy a budget rule. The fiction woven by Mr. Luskin's anonymous eyewitness should be obvious when one recognizes that an estimate larger than $8 billion (as Mr. Luskin believes would have been an appropriate estimate in 2006) also would have satisfied the "filibuster-proof reconciliation rules" and would have had the additional benefit of not requiring the Congress to raise taxes on other taxpayers. The legislation to which Mr. Luskin refers included 13 other revenue raising provisions. If Mr. Luskin would like to present his modeling of the present-law provision, my staff and I would be happy to discuss the economics of the provision with him. Thomas A. Barthold Chief of Staff Joint Committee on Taxation U.S. Congress Washington
		WALL STREET JOURNAL Is Roth Play Too Good to Be True? Tuesday, April 20, 2010 In "George W. Bush's 2010 Tax Miracle" (op-ed, April 15), Donald L. Luskin suggests that many wealthy owners of IRAs and other tax-deferred retirement accounts will convert their accounts to Roth IRAs "in exchange for freedom from taxes forever after on principal, income and gains." Should anyone be so naive to think that this administration won't later change the rules and begin to tax all gains on Roth IRAs for those families making above $250,000 per year? Dan Agan Spring, Texas If you are young and beginning your career, you may not want to put any of your savings in a tax-deferred account. In other words, pay the taxes on your savings today at relatively small marginal rates. Sadly, if you defer this tax (and if you are successful and responsible), your future tax burden will be tremendous, as effective tax rates skyrocket to fund our nation's escalating deficits. Douglas G. Geib II, CPA Brecksville, Ohio Although tax brackets in general may be higher in the future, what matters is a person's own tax bracket. Many people, after retiring, will find themselves in lower brackets as they live off their portfolio without income from a salary. Jack McManemin, CFP Salt Lake City
		WALL STREET JOURNAL Political Diary Tuesday, April 13, 2010 "The rescue of Greece is good news because, lawful or unlawful, it was necessary, just as TARP was. This violation of Maastricht was made inevitable in 2002 with another violation of Maastricht, the admission of Greece to the monetary union despite its excessive debt and deficits that have formally violated Article 104c every year since. The rescue . . .will save the euro from structural rupture. But the euro will be forever compromised as a credible world currency and competitor for the US dollar. Only a decade old and a novel experiment in monetary union without fiscal union, the euro derived its credibility from rules -- which have now been fundamentally violated." -- Donald Luskin, chief investment officer of Trend Macrolytics, on the European Union's bailout of Greece.
		CBN The 700 Club Tuesday, March 30, 2010
		WALL STREET JOURNAL Notable & Quotable Saturday, March 26, 2010 Trend Macrolytics' Chief Investment Officer Donald Luskin, in a note to clients, March 26 "For all the anti-growth implications in Sunday night's passage of Obamacare, it seems strange at first blush that markets pretty much haven't reacted at all. But why should they have? They've had a year to get used to the idea of something like this happening. And from the perspective of new recovery highs in stocks, we would say markets have reacted by expressing their satisfaction that it took a whole year. However distasteful the smoky-room processes that were ultimately required to achieve enactment, far worse would have been the legislative blitzkrieg that seemed inevitable a year ago. ...Obamacare's enactment took so long, became in the end so unpopular, and required such unseemly procedural ploys, that the road has now been definitively paved for even slower policy processes in the future, thanks to the increasingly likelihood that Republicans will take control of one or both houses of Congress in November."
		INVESTORS BUSINESS DAILY Capital Gains Taxes Set To Rise, Crimping Investment, Savings Wednesday, March 24, 2010 By Jed Graham Don Luskin, chief investment officer at Trend Macrolytics, noted that while changes in capital gains rates are rare, stocks typically move in the opposite direction of tax rates over the following year. Although the 2013 tax hikes are nearly three years from taking effect, Luskin notes that they would impact most meaningful investments under consideration today. "The chilling effect on the economy will start to be felt immediately," he said. In 2013 and beyond, Luskin adds, the high-income threshold for the higher rates — $200,000 for singles and $250,000 for couples — will become more of a middle-class problem because it isn't adjusted for inflation... Just how much of the looming increase in investment taxes has been priced into the markets is impossible to know, Luskin said. Investors might even be holding out hope that the Medicare tax increase on investment might be rolled back if Republicans retake the House in November, he said.
		USA TODAY 'There is still much to like' Tuesday, March 9, 2010 Donald Luskin, chief investment officer, Trend Macrolytics: "Looking forward, plenty of people say stocks' great performance over the last year is the warm-up to more big gains this year. They say it signals a rousing economic recovery that will lift stocks back to new all-time highs fairly quickly. Another camp says that there really isn't any economic recovery at all. They say the last year has just been a bear market rally and that it's now time for the economy to make a double-dip — and for stocks to hit new lows. "f you're trying to be a contrarian, faced with this dichotomy, it's hard to know what exactly you're supposed to be betting against. The smart bet may be simply that nothing at all will happen this year."
		CBS MONEY WATCH A Second Nomination for Bernanke? You Bet Monday, January 25, 2010 By John Keefe "'ve never looked at InTrade before, but among the many political outcomes you could wager on, this one seems to be the most one-sided. That is, the weight of money is on Ben [Bernanke]. One who seems to be is Donald Luskin, an accomplished investor and trader, and today chief investment officer of Trend Macrolytics, a research firm for institutional investors. On the InTrade web site, Mr. Luskin gets credit for thinking up the Bernanke contract, back in August when President Obama first made his renomination. In a phone call Monday, Mr. Luskin told me: "These so-called ‘prediction markets' are really accurate. They get a first call on things that other means of prediction, such as opinion surveys, don't get. They were all over Scott Brown [last week's Massachusetts upset winner in the U.S. Senate], and a while ago they were even right on the new pope. "These are great little laboratories that show how markets work. The person that knows the most will make the largest bet, and influence the market the most. In a simple opinion poll, any idiot can shoot his mouth off about he wants, rather than what he really predicts,and doesn't have to be right or wrong. "So I take it on face value that there's a 93 percent chance that Bernanke will be renominated."
		USA TODAY Earnings season could be rocky; deluge of reports today Friday, January 22, 2010 By Adam Shell This week, five Dow components and 57 companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 index will report earnings. "The earnings season will have to be an absolute barnburner to beat very elevated expectations," warns Don Luskin, chief investment officer at Trend Macrolytics. "Stocks are vulnerable to disappointment."