TRENDMACRO LIVE
On Q2 GDP
July 26, 2010
The recession was worse than we knew, making this recovery even more "expansionless."

POLITICAL PULSE
Good Week for Growth
July 26, 2010
Donald Luskin
New hopes for extending the Bush tax cuts, no carbon tax, and an easy Fed.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the EU Bank Stress Tests
July 23, 2010
By ruling out the effect of sovereign default on banks, the EU is ruling it out as a cause.

FED SHADOW
No QE2 Yet -- Just QE 1.1
July 22, 2010
Bernanke disappointed the "double dip" crowd, but it was still a step toward more easing.

MACROCOSM
An Earnings Season in the "Expansionless Recovery"
July 14, 2010
Intel's sales are back above trend -- but that leaves the economy still far below.

MACROCOSM
Europe Gropes toward Stress-Tests
July 12, 2010
It's a test to see if disunited Europe can establish new rules and play by them. 

MACROCOSM
A Funny Thing Happened on the Way to the Depression
July 6, 2010
No depression, and no "double dip." Still it's hard to recover from a great bear market.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the June Jobs Report
July 2, 2010
Some small upside surprises -- it's still an "expansionless recovery," not a "double dip."

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Today's Drop in Gold
July 1, 2010
Good news for the euro is bad news for gold, at least in the near-term.

MACROCOSM
Betting Against a "Double Dip"
June 30, 2010
It feels like the end of the world. But liquidity is plentiful and stocks are very cheap.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the June FOMC
June 23, 2010
Already dovish, now going on deflation-alert. A tiny first step toward more easing this year.

FED SHADOW
How to Ease, Not When to Tighten
June 23, 2010
Today the FOMC will take the first tiny steps down the path to further easing.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On RMB Revaluation
June 20, 2010
Buy the dip if there's a "strong yuan" panic. This is good for China and the world.

MARKET CALLS
Fixed Income Strategy: Take The Low Road
June 16, 2010
The Fed is stuck where it is this year and next: so bet on low yields and low quality.

MARKET CALLS
More Upside for Gold
June 10, 2010
The future for gold, and what an all-time high gold price is saying about the future.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the May Jobs Report
June 4, 2010
It's plain to see in the data. The recovery isn't jobless, it's expansion-less.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Focus Report: The Train Wreck in Hours Worked
June 2, 2010
There can be no classic "V-shaped recovery" when this time is so horribly different for labor.

MACROCOSM
The Panic Abates -- But Now What?
May 27, 2010
Euro-panic isn't the end of the world. But the world we face isn't the one we expected.

MACROCOSM
So Much For The "V"
May 21, 2010
An "expansionless recovery" in a world of "no exit" from government stimulus.

MACROCOSM
Gold at New Global Highs
May 13, 2010
Europe is patient-zero, but the breakout in gold is a flight from currencies worldwide.

MACROCOSM
Europe Gets le TARP
May 10, 2010
A painful lurch toward European federalism, but it's not clear it will restore confidence.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the April Jobs Report
May 7, 2010
The duality continues: growing employment and growing unemployment at the same time.

MACROCOSM
Gold is the Strongest Currency
May 6, 2010
Thanks to Greece it's at all-time highs in euros -- but why is it surging in dollar terms, too?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Q1 2010 GDP
April 30, 2010
A weak quarter: no "new normal," but no "V-shaped recovery" either.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the April FOMC
April 28, 2010
The Fed had nothing to say, so it said nothing. So it's no exit as far as the eye can see.

FED SHADOW
The Scariest Chart in Economics
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
The FOMC meets, facing a secular breakdown in the labor market.

MACROCOSM
If This Earnings Season Has Been So Great…
April 26, 2010
…then why haven't consensus earnings -- or stocks -- tracked on the upside?

MACROCOSM
Goldman Sucks
April 19, 2010
The new systemic risk: liability for past sins and heightened clamor for regulation.

MACROCOSM
The Consumer: QED
April 16, 2010
The recession is so over, the consumer is still king, and the "new normal" is off the table.

MACROCOSM
Greece Gets TARPed
April 12, 2010
The euro is saved, for now. But a lawless rescue is a permanent blow to credibility.

MACROCOSM
Updates on China, Oil, Jobs, the Consumer, and the Fed
April 9, 2010
The yuan moves oil, jobs move consumption, and unemployment keeps the Fed on hold.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the March Jobs Report
April 2, 2010
A weak report: employment and unemployment are growing at the same time.

MACROCOSM
Obamacare: Do Markets Care?
March 18, 2010
So many anti-growth long-fuse tax bombs, and so little reaction.

POLITICAL PULSE
No Protectionism Threat: Yuan To Bet?
March 18, 2010
The Schumer-Graham tariff bill is back, and China will probably blink again.

FED SHADOW
March FOMC Preview
March 15, 2010
The "extended period" language will stay -- there's just no reason to drop it.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Yellen for Fed Vice Chair
March 12, 2010
Another smart Obama appointment emphasizing policy continuity.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the February Jobs Report
March 5, 2010
It makes recession-end "official," but leaves a slow road back to full employment ahead.

MACROCOSM
The Case for Ambivalence, Volume Three
March 4, 2010
Data continues to confirm that we're only in a recovery, not a real expansion.

FED SHADOW
Some Tightening!
February 24, 2010
When the SFP is complete at $200 billion, excess reserves will top today's $1.137 trillion.

MACROCOSM
Real Deflation
February 23, 2010
January's core deflation report is accurate -- and it sets up for more inflation down the road.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Fed's Discount Rate Hike
February 18, 2010
Why couldn't renormalizing the discount rate wait until the next FOMC meeting.

MACROCOSM
Greek Farce
February 16, 2010
The EU's credit crisis has abated, at a deep cost to currency credibility worldwide.

FED SHADOW
Ben Can, But Ben Probably Won't
February 10, 2010
The Fed has the tools to "exit," but using them correctly remains a challenge.

MACROCOSM
PIIGS, Panic and Jobs
February 5, 2010
The stench of deflation rises from Europe, and the US jobs market shoots a little green.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Q4 2009 GDP
January 29, 2010
Waiting for that "new normal" -- a "new era" of frugality -- is getting mighty old.

FED SHADOW
Advice and Dissent
January 28, 2010
Hoenig's protest notwithstanding, jobs and politics have the Fed on hold all year.

MACROCOSM
Redoubling Down
February 25, 2010
Bernanke promises redoubled ease. The White House promises redoubled "change."

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Obama's Bank Regulation Proposal
January 21, 2010
Banks become regulated public utilities, forcing the Fed to be looser than ever.

POLITICAL PULSE
A Scott Heard 'Round the World?
January 19, 2010
A GOP Massachusetts win today would be another step down the bullish road toward political equilibrium.

MARKET CALLS
Under-Seasoned
January 15, 2010
Expectations are so elevated, this earnings season almost has to be a disappointment.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the December Jobs Report
January 8, 2010
No V-shaped recovery, but some signs that dynamism is returning to the jobs market.

FED SHADOW
New Year, Same Old Fed
January 4, 2010
The new wave of economic optimism isn’t moving the Fed toward serious tightening.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
2009's Economic Chart of the Year
December 28, 2009
Obama loses his rock-star status, driving an historic comeback for stocks.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
2010's Great Debate: Inflation or Deflation?
December 22, 2009
Both! Deflationary forces continue to bear down, so the Fed will inflate all the more.

FED SHADOW
Sucker Trade: Inflation for Jobs
December 17, 2009
Citing the lessons of the 1970s, the Fed seems ready to repeat its mistakes of the 1970s.

MACROCOSM
The Case for Ambivalence, Volume Two
December 14, 2009
We stick with our call for a sluggish recovery -- there's no evidence for anything else.

MACROCOSM
No Game-Changer
December 8, 2009
Markets and the Fed have quite correctly shrugged off last week's upside jobs surprise.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the November Jobs Report
December 4, 2009
Under the upside surprise in headline jobs, some tiny improvement in key labor trends.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Dubai Debt Crisis
November 27, 2009
Donald Luskin
At last, an event catalyst for a long-overdue correction in stocks.

FED SHADOW
Easing -- As in Appeasing
November 23, 2009
Gold soars as the Fed resists politicization by giving politicians the easy money they want.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
TrendMacro's Best Long Term Charts
November 12, 2009
Deep historical context on today's unique market and economic conditions.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the October Jobs Report
November 6, 2009
The recovery is more jobless than ever, and the Fed is pushed further to indefinite ease.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On GOP Wins in New Jersey and Virginia
November 4, 2009
This move back toward political balance underscores the durability of the March bottom.

MACROCOSM
Triple Play? No Way!
November 3, 2009
Stocks see an impossible earnings triple -- but gold sees inevitable inflation.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Q3 GDP
October 29, 2009
Still no "new era" of consumer retrenchment -- but no investment renaissance, either.

FED SHADOW
Promise Keepers
October 27, 2009
Next week the FOMC will repeat its assurance to keep rates low for "an extended period."

MACROCOSM
Geithner and the Dollar: That's Not My Job
October 15, 2009
For Treasury, it's not a problem at all -- and even if it is, it's the Fed's.

MACROCOSM
Gold at All-Time Highs
October 7, 2009
Believe it: the crisis of deflation has been turned into the problem of inflation.

FED SHADOW
Warsh's Warning
September 28, 2009
Okay, so the Fed won't be easy forever. Just almost forever.

MACROCOSM
Gold Above $1000: What Took So Long?
September 16, 2009
The Fed had to fix its bond boo-boo first, but now it's free to inflate -- and it will.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the July Jobs Report
September 4, 2009
Donald Luskin
Job losses continue to slow, but unemployment is more of a "roach motel" than ever.

MARKET CALLS
Monster Rally
August 31, 2009
Stocks will have to obey Stein's Law: "If something cannot go on forever, it will stop."

FED SHADOW
Fed Still On The T-Bond Sidelines
August 24, 2009
Kohn's Jackson Hole remarks don't mean more long-term bond buys are coming.

MARKET CALLS
Great… Now What?
August 21, 2009
A round-up of our strategic views now that the global economy has hit bottom.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the August FOMC
August 12, 2009
Not buying more Treasury bonds is hardly news, and hardly an exit strategy.

MACROCOSM
A Greener Kind of Shoot
August 7, 2009
A sign that the economy isn't just falling more slowly, but actually starting to grow. 

MACROCOSM
Still Waiting for that "New Era"
July 31, 2009
Revised GDP data deepens doubt about seemingly inevitable consumer retrenchment.

POLITICAL PULSE
America's Next Top Fed Model
July 27, 2009
Markets rightly expect Bernanke to stay, and Summers would be a destabilizing surprise.

FED SHADOW
The Fed's Bond Boo-Boo
July 24, 2009
The FOMC knows its $300 billion bond buy was a mistake -- it won't be buying more.

MACROCOSM
Surprise, Surprise
July 23, 2009
Earnings surprises, and a surprise crack-up of Obamacare, carry stocks to new highs.

POLITICAL PULSE
Health Care Deform
July 16, 2009
A proposed surtax may be the kind of self-correcting policy over-reach we saw in March.

MACROCOSM
A Deflationary Correction
July 9, 2009
The Fed may be off deflation watch, but markets evidently are not.

MACROCOSM
The Square Root of Recovery
July 2, 2009
Today's jobs report raises issues about the shape of recovery and the risk of deflation.

MACROCOSM
Can Inflation Plays Do Without Deflation?
June 25, 2009
Yesterday's FOMC takes some of the edge off, but the inflation theme is alive and well.

FED SHADOW
Too Soon to Stray
June 23, 2009
Markets should be relieved tomorrow when the Fed stays the course.

MACROCOSM
Regulation Road
June 18, 2009
For now Obama's regulatory proposals are just proposals -- but they're another step away from economic dynamism.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
The Case for Ambivalence
June 12, 2009
Donald Luskin
Where do we go from here, now that we're not going to zero?

FED SHADOW
They Laughed When I Sat Down to Monetize
June 4, 2009
The Fed is less worried about deflation -- but it's not worried enough about inflation.

MACROCOSM
Green Overshoots
May 29, 2009
How much more recovery can the economy take?

MACROCOSM
No, Mr. Bond, I Expect You to Die
Friday, May 22, 2009
China's not dumping. It's Treasuries gearing up for "Black Wednesday" with the Fed.

MACROCOSM
Wolf in the Fold
May 18, 2009
Donald Luskin
Meet the "change" trading range -- a go-nowhere market just like the 1960s-1970s.

MACROCOSM
The Stress Tests' Hidden Mickey
May 4, 2009
Donald Luskin
An unappreciated feature rules out another "bag run" on banks.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
It's an Old New Era
May 1, 2009
There's no Q1 retrenchment of consumption -- there's a shock to investment.

MACROCOSM
Stress Test Stress
April 21, 2009
The risk of a near-term "bag run," and a long-term drag on the whole banking sector.

MACROCOSM
All's Not Wells
April 13, 2009
Wells Fargo's pre-announcement is encouraging, but don't generalize it to all banks.

FED SHADOW
Charm Offensive
April 6, 2009
Donald Luskin
The Fed sees the inflation risk in its huge balance sheet -- but there's nothing it can do.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On IMF Gold Sales
April 2, 2009
The IMF doesn't determine the gold price. The Fed's response function does.

MACROCOSM
Geithner Gets a Do-Over
March 24, 2009
Markets applaud PPPIP, but the Fed signals that enough is enough.

FED SHADOW
Ben Boldly Goes
March 19, 2009
It's official: the Fed is fighting deflation by monetizing debt.

MACROCOSM
Number of the Beast
March 18, 2009
Nice rally. But how high is the upside when economic policy is at the edge of chaos?

MACROCOSM
Quantum of No Solace
March 10, 2009
The equity risk premium has gone up because the amount of risk has gone up.

MACROCOSM
Citi's Common Misconception
March 2, 2009
The troubled bank's exchange offer is pointless, costly and destabilizing.

MACROCOSM
Stocks Test the Lows, Gold Tests the Highs
February 23, 2009
Donald Luskin
Economic policy is in utter disarray -- all that's left is inflating our way out of this crisis.

MACROCOSM
Obama: "…today does mark the beginning of the end."
February 20, 2009
The more the government rescues the economy, the lower stocks go.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the New Bank Bonus Restrictions
February 15, 2009
Unintended consequences buried in the "stimulus" bill are a game-changer to the downside.

MACROCOSM
Two Strikes for Tim
February 11, 2009
Markets expected Geithner to be the man with the plan. Instead, it was amateur hour.

MACROCOSM
What is Gold Trying to Tell Us?
February 3, 2009
Mixed messages about deflation, inflation and the limits of fiscal stimulus.

MACROCOSM
Unknown Unknowns
January 30, 2009
Stocks are trying to bottom, but it all depends on the new administration's bank policies.

MACROCOSM
Rescue Remix
January 20, 2009
We're testing the lows as, once again, government rethinks its approach to bank rescues.

MACROCOSM
Passengers Survive, But Plane Sinks
January 16, 2009
Donald Luskin
Saving the banking system won't make big banks into interesting businesses.

MACROCOSM
Testing the Safety Net
January 14, 2009
Another bank crisis is brewing, there's no Treasury secretary, and Congress and Obama spar over TARP.

MACROCOSM
New Year, Same Old Recession
January 9, 2009
Let's review the baseline: how we got here, where we are, where we are going.

MACROCOSM
Is This a "New Era" Recession?
December 29, 2008
We don't see the case for a secular collapse in consumption.

FED SHADOW
"Some Time" A Great Notion
December 17, 2008
A zero rate and a humongous Fed balance sheet -- good for now, but not forever.

MACROCOSM
Why Isn't Gold at $1500?
December 10, 2008
The Fed's managing an unstable balance of titanic inflationary forces against the risk of deflation.

MACROCOSM
Brace for Another TARP Debate
December 3, 2008
The rescues are working, and Obama moves to the center -- but the Big Three are going to re-open the wounds to market confidence.

MACROCOSM
Another Rescue, A New Rescue Ranger
November 24, 2008
Citi gets TARPed again, and Treasury gets policy continuity for the TARPs still to come.

MACROCOSM
At Least They're Cheap
November 20, 2008
Even financials are now deeply undervalued, for the first time in this bear market.

MACROCOSM
Deflation Takes Center Stage
November 19, 2008
Core CPI prints negative, and the Fed openly uses the "D" word.

POLITICAL PULSE
It Ain't My Job
November 10, 2008
Good news for markets -- Obama's meeting of economic icons produced exactly nothing.

POLITICAL PULSE
Now What?
November 6, 2008
The election is over -- but the battle for the Senate and the Treasury is still being fought.

MACROCOSM
Bearack Obama
October 31, 2008
He could usher in a capital-unfriendly "Left decade," but in the near-term Obama's election could be a plus for stocks.

MACROCOSM
How Bad An Earnings Hit?
October 23, 2008
Forward earnings are falling -- but stocks have already fallen far more.

MACROCOSM
At Last: A Bail-out That's a Bail-out
October 14, 2008
After six months of destroying financial sector equity, Treasury gets it almost right.

MACROCOSM
The Right to Arm Bears
October 9, 2008
Donald Luskin
A recipe for speculative attack: even greater Treasury powers, and no short-selling ban.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Global Rate Cuts
October 8, 2008
Irrelevant and inflationary. Markets need real money now, not "soon."

MACROCOSM
Henry Paulson: The Donald Rumsfeld of Bail-Outs
October 6, 2008
After two weeks of congressional shock and awe, Treasury has no plan.

MACROCOSM
Quick Thoughts on the New Black Monday
September 30, 2008
The historic stock drop was more politically manufactured hysteria than reality.

MACROCOSM
Peeking Under the TARP
September 29, 2008
Now a bill, but still no details. First take: it could have been worse, and it might work.

MACROCOSM
Bail-Out Brinksmanship
September 26, 2008
Will credit markets get their bail-out? Will they even want the bail-out they might get?

MACROCOSM
It's Not the RTC -- It's a $700 Billion LBO
September 22, 2008
Donald Luskin
Treasury's bail-out is broader than the market now sees, and so will be the regulations.

MACROCOSM
If You're Short, Abort
September 19, 2008
With the SEC's ban on short-selling, two wrongs could make a right.

MACROCOSM
AIG: Rescue or Bag Run?
September 17, 2008
Government rescues are making the most important firms "too big to not fail."

MACROCOSM
Tough Love for Lehman
September 14, 2008
The Fed takes a big chance in order to break the cycle of "immoral hazard."

MACROCOSM
Your Speculative Attacks Dollars At Work
September 11, 2008
"Nationalization risk" replaces credit risk in the financial sector.

MACROCOSM
Fannie/Freddie Fallout
September 8, 2008
The takeover heals near-term crises, but raises serious long-term questions.

MACROCOSM
GSE Rescue: First Impressions
September 7, 2008
The Treasury's move will help stabilize housing and credit markets, and take pressure off the Fed.

MACROCOSM
Perception, Election, Reality and Risk
September 5, 2008
Bleak sentiment is way overblown -- but some real risks are getting closer and closer.

MACROCOSM
The Dollar: We're Not Buying It
August 26, 2008
The Fed's easy posture simply doesn't support a sustained dollar rally.

MACROCOSM
Gold: Is Enough Enough?
August 13, 2008
The drop in the "inflation plays" is overdone in light of worsening inflation risks.

MACROCOSM
No Get Out of Inflation Free Card
August 6, 2008
Inflation-sensitive markets have been distracted by oil -- soon they'll turn to the Fed.

MACROCOSM
All Cross, No Current
August 1, 2008
Stocks are cheap near-term amidst a jumble of conflicting data, news and politics.

MACROCOSM
Indecision and Inflation
July 22, 2008
As stocks have recovered, so has a glimmer of hope that the Fed might get it right.

MACROCOSM
Stocks are Cheap, But the Fed's Asleep
July 15, 2008
Hard to believe, but a rally is imminent. But long-term, the Fed has tragically missed the inflation-fighting window.

MACROCOSM
Will the GSE Rescue Work?
July 14, 2008
The rescue is feasible, and should go a long way toward restoring confidence.

MACROCOSM
From Correction to Test to Bear Market
July 10, 2008
We're not scared by bears on the cover of Barron's. We're scared that Bernanke will blow it.

MACROCOSM
Fail-Safe
July 2, 2008
Markets are all at critical test-points, waiting to see if the Fed will act to support the dollar and stabilize the oil price.

MACROCOSM
Markets Speak, Bernanke Needs to Act
June 27, 2008
We worry about the banks a little. The Fed should worry about an oil price spiral a lot.

MACROCOSM
From Pessimism to Populism
June 20, 2008
Today's fears are overwrought, but they're laying the groundwork for serious future risk.

MACROCOSM
Subprime Lending Was Their Best Idea
June 4, 2008
Where are financial sector earnings going to come from? And where's the safety net when the PDCF expires?

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Commodity Prices: Blame the Indexers?
May 28, 2008
It's an intriguing idea -- but to the extent it's true, it's only a temporary effect.

MACROCOSM
The Upside of Obamanation
May 22, 2008
Amidst a nasty correction in stocks, a (sort of) bullish take on an Obama presidency.

MACROCOSM
The Fed's New New Facility
May 16, 2008
Just when the Fed got things figured out, it's poking the hornet's nest with a new policy tool.

MACROCOSM
The Next Thing to Worry About
May 8, 2008
As the credit crisis eases, it's time to turn to the growth risks of the November election.

FED SHADOW
No Pause Promise, But No Panic
May 1, 2008
The FOMC was disturbingly vague -- but the finger is off the rate-cut trigger.

MACROCOSM
There Will Not Be Blood
April 24, 2008
The surge in oil has been somewhat overdone, but at base it's a sign of improving growth prospects.

MACROCOSM
The Bear Stearns Bottom: One Month Later
April 17, 2008
The economy stabilizes short of recession, and "inflation plays" emerge as "growth plays."

MACROCOSM
2 + 2 = 3 and 3 - 2 = 2
April 7, 2008
The Fed's new virtuous cycle changes the relationship of growth and inflation.

MARKET CALLS
Inflation Inflection
March 25, 2008
The Fed pulls back from the inflationary brink, and we call the top on "inflation plays."

MACROCOSM
Three Quarter Profile In Courage
March 19, 2008
The Fed signals an end to endless rate cuts, and markets signal the Fed may have finally mastered the credit crisis.

MACROCOSM
Bernankruptcy
March 17, 2008
It's a wonderful panic, with Ben Bernanke playing Donna Reed. How will the movie end?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Term Securities Lending Facility
March 11, 2008

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On TAF and Jobs
March 7, 2008

MACROCOSM
Gold $1000, Here We Come
February 28, 2008
It's just a matter of time, with the Fed utterly oblivious to inflation risk.

MACROCOSM
The Other Winners in the Credit Crisis
February 19, 2008
If you didn't short risky credits, being long inflation has been the place to be.

MACROCOSM
Waiting Game
February 15, 2008
Passive and gradualist, the Fed is prolonging the credit crisis and the soft-spot.

POLITICAL PULSE
Obamanation
February 5, 2008
The ascendance of Barack Obama brings anti-growth political risk into focus.

MACROCOSM
Jump! How High? Cut! How Low?
January 31, 2008
The Fed's appeasement of market panic has brought us to where further rate cuts may do more harm than good.

FED SHADOW
Fed Cred Dead?
January 22, 2008
Even as it saves the world, the Fed can't quite get it right.

MACROCOSM
Another Leg Lower
January 21, 2008
The monoline insurer crisis is uniquely dangerous, and the Fed is losing credibility at the same time.

MACROCOSM
Throwing the Baby Out with the Kitchen Sink
January 16, 2008
Even great news is taken as proof that we're heading into recession, or already there.

MACROCOSM
The End of the World, Part 3
January 7, 2008
Another market "tantrum" tests the August/November lows for stocks.

MACROCOSM
Hell of a Year?
December 27, 2007
Beyond the housing collapse and the credit implosion, things look remarkably good at year-end.

POLITICAL PULSE
Is the Inevitable Inevitable?
December 19, 2007
A GOP victory on taxes and spending, and the emergence of Ron Paul, lowers the chances of a growth catastrophe in the 2008 election.

MACROCOSM
Rescue Rangers
December 10, 2007
Daily rescue investments in the financial sector signal that the crisis is near an end, and that the Fed has done enough.

FED SHADOW
"Act As Expected"
November 28, 2007
The Fed repeats it will only "act as needed," but it's still not likely to disappoint expectations.

MACROCOSM
Gold's New Line in the Sand
November 20, 2007
Inflation-sensitive markets won't let themselves be talked down for long.

MACROCOSM
The Wages of Fear
November 19, 2007
Rising risk aversion is alarming -- but it's also a gift.

MARKET CALLS
Time to Earn the Panic Premium
November 13, 2007
Stocks are the king of carry trades once again.

MACROCOSM
The Dollar Will Have to Wait
November 8, 2007
The cost of too much ease is becoming clearer to Bernanke, but it won't turn off his liquidity fire-hose.

FED SHADOW
From Line in the Sand, to Sand in the Face
October 30, 2007
Bullied by gold, oil, the dollar and the futures markets, what can the Fed do to be strong?

MACROCOSM
Financials Stink Up the Joint
October 25, 2007
Earnings are coming in strong, except for financials -- and the Fed will take care of that.

MACROCOSM
Easier and Easier
October 12, 2007
How come inflation plays are soaring while Fed rate cut expectations are diminishing?

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Where's the There There? Part II
October 5, 2007
With stocks back to all-time highs, was the summer crisis really about nothing at all?

MACROCOSM
Honey, I Shrunk The Dollar
September 28, 2007
The Fed has kicked inflation pressures into high gear, pretty much for no good reason.

FED SHADOW
A Dearth of a Thousand Cuts
September 18, 2007
Bernanke will cave to market pressure and cut the funds rate once, but a neutral bias will disappoint the doves about future cuts.

MACROCOSM
Cut or No Cut
September 5, 2007
We still think it's an open question, but either way stocks and inflation plays will do well.

MACROCOSM
Stocks Don't Need a Rate Cut
August 31, 2007
There are other tools for the job. In fact, when easing expectations rise, stocks go down.

MACROCOSM
Where's the There There?
August 23, 2007
No recession. No deflation. Was this even a correction?

MACROCOSM
2007 and the Ghosts of 1998
August 16, 2007
The current crisis isn't a repeat of Long Term Capital Management, but it rhymes.

MARKET CALLS
Burned Out
August 7, 2007
Panic was ignited by Bill Gross and it burned out with Jim Cramer.

MACROCOSM
Thoughts After a Very Rough Week
July 30, 2007
Two weeks after all-time highs, panic-stricken stocks are almost as cheap as they were at the very bottom.

MACROCOSM
Bill Gross Shoots, But Can't Hit
July 25, 2007
If this is a real "liquidity crisis," then the Dow is at 5000.

MACROCOSM
The King Is Dead, Long Live the King
July 9, 2007
Stocks are no longer insanely cheap relative to bonds. They're just wildly cheap.

MACROCOSM
The Subprime and the Banal
June 25, 2007
The global liquidity surplus will absorb the latest speculative crisis. The problem is that everybody knows it.

MACROCOSM
Stocks Unfazed
June 14, 2007
Neither a new anti-China bill nor the latest leg in the four-year bear market in bonds will crack the stock market.

MARKET CALLS
Doves Eat Crow
June 6, 2007
They admit it finally -- no rate cuts. But that won't hurt growth, so a stock market correction will be short-lived.

MARKET CALLS
Inflation Plays Revisited
May 31, 2007
The worst case inflation risk is off the table, but risk remains as growth accelerates.

POLITICAL PULSE
Best Behavior
May 22, 2007
It's not the economy, stupid. For now, Democrats have no reason to rock the growth boat.

POLITICAL PULSE
Upside Surprise on Trade
May 14, 2007
A Democratic congress finds a way to keep the globalization train on the track.

POLITICAL PULSE
Washington on Hold
May 10, 2007
The two forces most likely to derail the economy -- the Fed and the Democratic congress -- have both put themselves on the sidelines.

MACROCOSM
Two Economies, One Funds Rate
May 1, 2007
The Fed is letting 5% of the economy make 100% of its policy decisions.

MACROCOSM
Earnings to Economy: "No Recession"
April 20, 2007
One company at a time, the forward consensus isn't worried about the latest crisis du jour.

MARKET CALLS
Update to Our US Equity Outlook
April 13, 2007
The correction was a correction -- it has about run its course, with inflation plays in the lead.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Trade in the Balance
April 5, 2007
Why trade is good, why protectionism is bad, and why countervailing duties on Chinese paper are only a small step in the wrong direction.

MACROCOSM
Flex Time
March 30, 2007
Today's data should begin to bend the "flexible" Fed toward the breaking point.

MACROCOSM
Huh?
March 22, 2007
The Fed may be on pause longer now, but nothing in yesterday's FOMC statement justifies the fantasy that rate cuts are coming.

MACROCOSM
All Tip, No Iceberg
March 16, 2007
Superabundant liquidity is buffering the economy from problems in subprime.

MACROCOSM
Something's Survived
March 8, 2007
Donald Luskin
The inflation plays are the winners in the market's recent turbulence.

MARKET CALLS
Are We Scared Yet?
February 28, 2007
Donald Luskin
We got the correction we expected -- but is that really all it is?

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Subprime Time
February 26, 2007
Donald Luskin
Excess liquidity will absorb subprime's problems -- a Fed bailout would only add to inflation.

MARKET CALLS
Enough Good News for a Correction
February 16, 2007
With Bernanke on indefinite hold and tax risk reduced, what's left to rally stocks?

MACROCOSM
Chairman Bernanke's Year of Living Dangerously
February 8, 2007
In his second year, Bernanke will have to pay the price for the risks he took in his first.

MACROCOSM
Gold Versus Goldilocks
February 2, 2007
The problem with this stock market rally is that inflation plays are leading it.

POLITICAL PULSE
Tax Wars
January 22, 2007
The era of tax cuts is over, and a new era of tax risk has begun.

MARKET CALLS
Update to our Equity Sector Forecasts
January 11, 2007
Tech and Telecom driven by Democrats -- Energy and Materials driven by seemingly everything.

MACROCOSM
A Break in Trend
January 8, 2007
Stocks have drooped just as investors had become complacent, and growth visibly reaccelerates.

MARKET CALLS
It Was a Very Good Year
December 29, 2006
We were right that stocks would dominate in 2006 -- the trick in 2007 will be to call the top.

MACROCOSM
Paradox Friday
December 18, 2006
Mixed signals prolong "Indian summer," but they're no cause for complacency.

POLITICAL PULSE
Net Neutrality Not Neutered
December 14, 2006
Two big defeats for "net neutrality" regulation don't make a deregulatory trend.

MACROCOSM
Walk the Hawk
November 30, 2006
The "inflation plays" smell blood in Ben Bernanke's water.

MACROCOSM
Indian Summer
November 21, 2006
How long can stocks make hay until the Fed lowers the boom?

POLITICAL PULSE
Stock Market Exit Poll
November 15, 2006
Equity sectors are already responding to the Democratic congressional sweep.

POLITICAL PULSE
Don't Panic
November 8, 2006
The Democrats did better than expected, but it's not a lurch toward anti-growth policy.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Gut Check for Growth
November 2, 2006
Our growth forecast is getting increasingly out of consensus -- and that's just where we like it.

MACROCOSM
The Price of the Pause
October 20, 2006
With the Fed on pause, the equilibrium funds rate is now arguably above 6%.

POLITICAL PULSE
Speaker Pelosi
October 12, 2006
Long-term, the GOP losing congressional control may be best for growth.

MACROCOSM
Highs for Stocks, Lows for Sentiment
October 9, 2006
In our "first up, then down" strategy model, how long can "first up" last?

FED SHADOW
The Frustrated Fed
September 28, 2006
Where on Lenin's Tomb do Fed officials have to stand to signal their hawkish bias?

MACROCOSM
Immaculate Consumption
September 20, 2006
Consumers will stay strong -- bad news for the Fed, good news for the GOP.

MACROCOSM
Weak Gold, Strong Inflation
September 13, 2006
Gold would have to drop another $200 to truly relieve inflation pressures.

MACROCOSM
Foreshocks
September 7, 2006
Modest positives rule the near term, but inevitable negatives are just over the horizon.

MARKET CALLS
Update to Our US Equity Forecast
August 23, 2006
Why the bullish short term can only be so good, and why the bearish long term might only be so bad.

MACROCOSM
If Only It Were This Easy
August 18, 2006
We're delighted to see stocks up and gold down -- but don't break out the champagne just yet.

MARKET CALLS
Bernanke's Quagmire
August 7, 2006
The Fed will cause a real recession by trying to prevent an illusory one.

MACROCOSM
Judgment Day
August 3, 2006
Tuesday's FOMC meeting will be pivotal for markets and the economy.

MACROCOSM
Depending on Undependable Data
July 28, 2006
Today's GDP report may take away the Fed's "wrong reason" to do the "right thing."

MACROCOSM
Bernanke on the Hill
July 20, 2006
The Fed chief may hope the data will allow the rate hikes to stop, but there's one more coming.

MACROCOSM
Inflection Point Deflected
July 11, 2006
Equities need the Fed to find the courage and credibility to deal with inflation risk.

MACROCOSM
The Out-of-Consensus Consensus
June 26, 2006
Slowdown fears grip Wall Street -- yet analysts' forward earnings are accelerating.

MACROCOSM
The May 10 Inflection Point
June 12, 2006
It was the high water mark of inflation expectations and carry trades -- but it's a mistake to think it's going to roll the economy over.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Tuesday's Elections
Wednesday, June 7, 2006

MACROCOSM
Today and 1987: Ominous Parallels? Part 2
June 2, 2006
The worst thing the Fed could do now is to repeat Greenspan's 1987 mistake.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Treasury Secretary Paulson
May 30, 2006

MACROCOSM
Today and 1987: Ominous Parallels? Part 1
May 25, 2006
Some macroeconomic variables are parallel to 1987, but markets are totally perpendicular.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Bad News About Avian Flu
May 24, 2006

MACROCOSM
Rain on the Tax Cut Parade
May 15, 2006
Now stocks have to worry about a Democratic House, and a Fed that is "putting uphill.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Good News About Avian Flu
May 11, 2006

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Extending the Tax Cuts: The Home Stretch
May 9, 2006

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Tax Bill Progress
May 3, 2006

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Another Tax Bill Breakdown
April 27, 2006

MACROCOSM
High Noon
April 25, 2006
Stocks face the risk that if the 2003 tax cuts aren't extended now, they never will be.

POLITICAL PULSE
Tax Cut Rashomon
April 11, 2006
Even a call from the President couldn't get the 2003 tax cuts extended last week, but it's not over yet.

POLITICAL PULSE
Two to Tangle the Tax Cuts
April 10, 2006
How Chuck Grassley and Bill Thomas let a personal feud put growth at risk.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Tax and Budget Breakdowns
April 7, 2006

POLITICAL PULSE
Tax Cut Extension: The Deal Takes Shape
April 6, 2006
While partisans are distracted by immigration, tax reconciliation is quietly moving forward.

MACROCOSM
Quick Takes
March 29, 2006
Bird flu theme takes flight, stock-friendly Fed news, protectionism recedes.

MACROCOSM
Why Rates Can't Clock Stocks
March 23, 2006
How can stocks and interest rates make new highs at the same time?

MACROCOSM
Quick Takes
March 16, 2006
Updates on extending the 2003 tax cuts, and the avian influenza theme.

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Avian Flu: Risk and Opportunity
March 6, 2006
When infected birds show up on US soil this year, it will be a further windfall for biotech companies.

FED SHADOW
Is Ben Bernanke a Phillips Head?
March 1, 2006
Does the Fed chair mean it when he says that maximum employment and price stability are compatible?

POLITICAL PULSE
Extending Visibility
February 17, 2006
Chances for extension of the 2003 tax cuts have gotten better -- and markets are beginning to see it.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Byrd Rule and Extension of the 2003 Tax Cuts
February 8, 2006

MACROCOSM
Quick Takes
February 7, 2006
What's driving gold, corporate earnings slowdown, and tax cut extension progress.

POLITICAL PULSE
Quick Takes from Washington
February 2, 2006
Extending the tax cuts and the GOP majority, new Fed governors, new CEA chair.

MACROCOSM
Election Risk: It's Back
January 26, 2006
The 2006 congressional elections are coming into view as a driver of stock prices

MACROCOSM
Resilience or Folly?
January 20, 2006
Stocks have weathered well this week, but we're suspicious.

MACROCOSM
Accidentally on Purpose
January 11, 2006
How the stock market and the Fed are getting it right by getting it wrong.

MACROCOSM
Don't Put a Fork In It
January 6, 2006
The Fed's not done, and either is extending capital-friendly tax rates.

FED SHADOW
Bernanke's Conundrum
December 20, 2005
As the new Fed chairman takes office, his deepest beliefs will pull him in opposite policy directions.

POLITICAL PULSE
Tax Bill Game Theory, and Why It Matters
December 8, 2005
More thrills and spills on the way to extension of the 2003 tax cuts -- and a remembrance of what those cuts have done for the economy.

POLITICAL PULSE
Heading into the Tax Bill Endgame
December 2, 2005
Stocks are priced neither for the best nor the worst policy outcomes.

POLITICAL PULSE
A Whiff of Windfall Profits Taxes
November 17, 2005
Extending the 2003 tax cuts is now complicated by an accounting penalty on big oil.

POLITICAL PULSE
Beyond Disappointment
November 11, 2005
Why do stocks hang tough while the Republican pro-growth consensus continues to unravel?

POLITICAL PULSE
A Setback for Extending the 2003 Tax Cuts
November 9, 2005
Grassley's retreat to only one-year extension may be part of a broader retreat for pro-growth policy.

MACROCOSM
Quick Takes
November 3, 2005
Energy and consumer themes, Bush one year after, looking to 2006, and extending the 2003 tax cuts.

POLITICAL PULSE
Quag Miers for the Fed
October 24, 2005
Handicapping how a dysfunctional White House will select the next Greenspan.

MACROCOSM
Attack of the Kohn-heads
October 12, 2005
The emergence of deficit-hawks on the FOMC presents a new prospect for monetary policy risk.

MACROCOSM
What's Spooked Stocks?
October 7, 2005
Already nervous stocks have been discounting deepening political risks.

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Played Out
October 5, 2005
The pro-energy and anti-consumer consensus is ripe for reversal.

POLITICAL PULSE
Monetary Step Forward, Fiscal Step Backward
September 29, 2005
Grassley puts tax cuts at risk, while Greenspan gives himself one more vote.

POLITICAL PULSE
The McCain Mutiny
September 23, 2005
A deficit hawk has emerged as the unlikely man at the margin on tax cuts.

MACROCOSM
So Far So Good
September 15, 2005
Pro-growth policy is still on track, despite post-Katrina economic and spending shocks.

MACROCOSM
Blamestorm
September 6, 2005
The post-Katrina risks to markets are mostly political, not economic.

MACROCOSM
Water In The Streets
September 1, 2005
Katrina could trigger important revaluations in stocks, bonds, and oil.

MACROCOSM
Oil In Perspective
August 25, 2005
The risk from record oil prices is less than meets the eye -- or, at least, different.

MACROCOSM
The Fed's Oil Crisis
August 15, 2005
The oil spike has a strong inflationary component -- yet it may make the Fed less vigilant.

MACROCOSM
Are Stocks Protected from Protectionism?
August 4, 2005
The market has celebrated deliverance from the China tariff crisis -- but is it really over?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Yuan Revaluation
July 21, 2005

MACROCOSM
Earnings Surprise
July 15, 2005
In a pessimistic and politicized world, stocks are just barely beginning to reflect the macro positives.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the London Bombings
July 7, 2005

MACROCOSM
Policy Takes A Right Turn
July 5, 2005
Trade, monetary and tax policy risks all abated last week: good news for stocks.

MACROCOSM
Quick Takes
June 23, 2005
Oil, inflation plays, Social Security, global warming and China.

MACROCOSM
The King of Carry Trades
June 14, 2005
The carry trade with the best mark-to-value and the most valuable optionality is the one that no one is doing.

MACROCOSM
Efficient Equals Wrong
June 10, 2005
We aren't buying the stories the "efficient" bond market is telling, and either is Greenspan.

MACROCOSM
Listen Up
June 2, 2005
Stocks are telling us that inflation risk is moderating, rates are rising, and that growth will be steady.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the Judicial Nominations Pact
May 25, 2005

MACROCOSM
Ducked Bullets
May 20, 2005
Risks to equities are improving, and so are prices -- yet stocks are as cheap as ever.

MACROCOSM
Valuation Brinksmanship
May 12, 2005
Stocks have pulled back from a value abyss -- shades of March, 2003.

FED SHADOW
Department of Corrections
May 4, 2005
The FOMC corrected its statement yesterday -- but when will the Fed correct the bond market.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Inflation: Disagreement Among Friends
April 26, 2005
Even economists who respect market-based price signals are missing the evidence of more inflation yet to come.

MACROCOSM
Tsunamis! Killer Asteroids! Protectionism!
April 21, 2005
Add another one to the list of risks driving stocks to historic undervaluation.

MACROCOSM
Back to Square One
April 15, 2005
In growth-sensitive markets now, it’s as though the presidential election never happened.

POLITICAL PULSE
Waiting for a "Swift Boats Moment"
April 7, 2005
Undervalued stocks need a catalyst that clears the overhang of tax policy risk.

MACROCOSM
The End of a Theme
March 29, 2005
If the Fed follows through, it's good for stocks and bad for the reflation/inflation plays.

MACROCOSM
About Time
March 21, 2005
The Fed finally awakens to the inflation threat -- and in time to remain "measured."

MACROCOSM
Inflation Now
March 14, 2005
Undervalued stocks have absorbed the inflation scare that has devastated bonds.

MACROCOSM
Buried Alive?
March 3, 2005
Social Security reform is tied to the Bush growth agenda -- and both are still in play.

POLITICAL PULSE
Pyrrhic Victory?
February 23, 2005
Bush risks throwing away his tax cuts in a gambit to win Social Security reform.

MARKET CALLS
A Question of Value
February 14, 2005
Cheap stocks in a robust economic environment are an outstanding risk/return play.

POLITICAL PULSE
The 3% Finesse
February 8, 2005
Bush's misunderstood benefit offset could be the key to enacting personal accounts in Social Security.

POLITICAL PULSE
The Purple Finger of Fate
Thursday, February 3, 2005
The successful Iraq election opens a window for pro-growth policy success.

POLITICAL PULSE
Policy Paranoia
January 24, 2005
Stocks are exaggerating the risk that the Social Security debate is getting out of control.

MACROCOSM
Waiting for the River
January 18, 2005
It's another high-stakes hand of Texas Hold-'em, Bush style.

MACROCOSM
The Rate Stuff
January 5, 2005
The new year begins with a rate scare for stocks -- and a buying opportunity.

MACROCOSM
Social Security: Politics and Economics
December 21, 2004
The inner financial and political dynamics of Social Security reform, and what they mean for markets.

POLITICAL PULSE
Next Year's Miracle
December 14, 2004
Here's the likely shape of Bush's big bet for 2005: Social Security reform with private accounts.

MACROCOSM
We've Only Just Begun
December 3, 2004
There's still air in the "bubble of fear" -- and room on the upside for stocks.

MACROCOSM
Stop Worrying and Love the Bond?
November 18, 2004
No -- bonds are as wrong as the Fed is if they imagine there is no inflation threat.

MACROCOSM
Unlocking "The Bush Rally"
November 12, 2004
Election: click. Oil: click. Economy: click. The Fed: clunk!

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
A Big Score
November 5, 2004
Bush wins. Stocks win. And the political futures markets win.

MARKET CALLS
Don't Miss the Obvious
November 2, 2004
A bubble of fear has driven stocks to deep undervaluation, and that bubble is about to burst.

POLITICAL PULSE
Y2K Then, EY04 Now
October 25, 2004
Democrats say they will litigate the election -- and markets believe them.

MACROCOSM
Broken?
October 15, 2004
Some important things are broken. But stocks are priced as though they can never be fixed.

MACROCOSM
Getting Back Into Whack
October 5, 2004
Political markets, capital markets and labor markets are all recovering from extreme disequilibriums.

POLITICAL PULSE
Many A Slip
October 1, 2004
Bush missed the whisper number last night. Time to start whispering about October 8.

MACROCOSM
Bush Out of Whack
September 22, 2004
How come markets haven't rallied as much as George Bush has?

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Bush Under Speculative Attack
September 14, 2004

POLITICAL PULSE
The Bush-Bashing Bubble Has Burst
September 7, 2004
The markets and the economy may finally be getting visibility on a Bush victory.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
An Olympic-Size Risk
August 26, 2004
The controversy over Olympic gymnastic gold may be a precursor of another contested presidential election.

MACROCOSM
Is It "All About Oil"?
August 20, 2004
Or is oil all about President George W. Bush?

POLITICAL PULSE
Not So Nifty Fifty-Fifty
August 13, 2004
We're at the point of maximum electoral uncertainty -- and it may continue until well after the election.

MACROCOSM
Oil, Jobs and Equities
August 6, 2004
Oil and jobs mean higher levels of political and monetary risk -- but the economy is still robust and stocks are very cheap.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On the No-Bounce Bounce
August 3, 2004

MACROCOSM
Just Chute Me
July 29, 2004
Over-excited fantasies have elevated risk premiums at the bottom of the trading range.

MARKET CALLS
Tech: A Trading Value Play
July 20, 2004
Back at the bottom of the trading range, the Technology Sector looks cheap in relative and absolute terms.

MACROCOSM
The Ghosts of 2000
July 15, 2004
Intel's earnings report evokes the precipice before the fall -- but that was then and this is now.

MACROCOSM
The Republic of Hanging Chad
July 7, 2004
Markets twist in the wind while tax and monetary policy are up for grabs.

FED SHADOW
Measure This!
June 25, 2004
You can't fight the numbers: trusting the Fed has been an expensive mistake.

MACROCOSM
Coming to Terms with Inflation Reality
June 21, 2004
Most investors don't "get it" that inflation is alive short-term, and that disinflation is dead long-term.

MACROCOSM
Summer of our Discontent
June 7, 2004
Equities are hostage to resolution on inflation and the election.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
More Thoughts on $40 Crude
May 26, 2004
This time it really is different: today's high oil prices don't have to mean a rerun of "That 70's Show."

MACROCOSM
Climbing the Wall of Self-Loathing
May 18, 2004
With the world supposedly falling apart, why isn't the market more scared?

MACROCOSM
The Right Tight
May 13, 2004
Tightening cycles can be good for stocks -- if the Fed gets it right for a change.

MACROCOSM
Measured
May 5, 2004
Bonds lose, stocks win. 

MACROCOSM
A Buyable Consolidation?
April 28, 2004
So where's the "buyable dip"? Maybe this is it.

MACROCOSM
Buyable Dip? Yes, But...
April 16, 2004
Higher interest rates are not to be feared -- provided the Fed really delivers them, and Bush dodges the political fallout.

MARKET CALLS
Tech: Back in Harm's Way?
April 8, 2004
With new political uncertainties and no valuation tailwinds, the tech sector is suddenly not so compelling.

TRENDMACRO LIVE!
On Bush and Jobs
April 2, 2004

MACROCOSM
More At Stake Than Jobs
April 1, 2004
Bush (and the market) survived Richard Clarke. Now for tomorrow's payroll jobs number.

POLITICAL PULSE
The Bush Breakout
March 19, 2004
After two months of silence, Bush is back. It's time to unwind the Kerry trade.

MACROCOSM
The Kerry Trade
March 12, 2004
Political uncertainty is opening up an interesting value opportunity.

MACROCOSM
Tough Time for Tech
March 8, 2004
The most growth-sensitive sector is caught in the crossfire of political and monetary risks.

MACROCOSM
Inflationary Paradoxes
March 3, 2004
Markets struggle to come to terms with the reality of inflationary acceleration.

MACROCOSM
If There's No Inflation, Then How Come...
February 23, 2004
...basic materials sector earnings forecasts are exploding, and price hikes are starting to move through the pipeline?

INTELLECTUAL AMMO
China and Inflation
February 18, 2004
Our inflationary fears are not reduced by the several popular China theories.

MARKET CALLS
A Tricky Mixture
February 10, 2004
Equity sectors are being driven by both growth and inflation.

MARKET CALLS
A Buyable Dip
January 29, 2004
Rising rates here won't be bad for stocks, knee-jerk reactions notwithstanding.

POLITICAL PULSE
Iowa -- Who's Upset?
January 22, 2004
Kerry's Iowa surprise changes the market's perceptions of electoral risks for the economy.

MACROCOSM
"It" Can Happen Here
January 15, 2004
The "it" is inflation, and "it" will happen. 1987 deja vu all over again?

MACROCOSM
The Tax Cut Gift that Keeps on Giving
January 5, 2004
Last year's rally barely moved valuations on an after-tax basis, and stocks are still cheap.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
A Considerable Seduction
December 17, 2003
The Fed's campaign to lower long-term yields and increase inflation is a dangerous bait-and-switch.

MARKET CALLS
The Best Materials
December 9, 2003
In stocks, a new fastest horse emerges as the reflationary expansion turns inflationary.

MACROCOSM
The Inflation Chartbook
December 2, 2003
Despite what the Fed says, forward-looking market-based metrics point to inflation.

MACROCOSM
Gold $400
November 19, 2003
400 is just a number. Gold is just a barbarous relic. And Helen of Troy was just a woman.

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
The Politics of Expansion
November 10, 2003
The conventional wisdom is catching up to the market in seeing the economic expansion -- and that presents some new risks.

MACROCOSM
The Road to Hope
November 6,
Risks abound, but is it time to stop worrying and love the expansion?

MARKET CALLS
Investing at the Brink
October 30, 2003
Picking the winners and losers as the Fed sleepwalks at the edge of inflation.

POLITICAL PULSE
Frustrated and Concerned
October 21, 2003
John Snow said something sensible yesterday. That begs the question -- why?

POLITICAL PULSE
The Potential Price of Pandering
October 17, 2003
The administration's politicized dollar policy risks the market's confidence in economic recovery.

MACROCOSM
Tech's Top Line is Back
October 10, 2003
Tech has moved beyond the "sales-less recovery."

MACROCOSM
Greenspan, Gold and Growth
October 6, 2003
Why isn't the stock market reacting better to Friday's jobs growth news?

POLITICAL PULSE
Defeat from the Jaws of Victory?
September 25, 2003
Political posturing and unsound economics threatens the expansion.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
The Deficit and Growth
September 22, 2003
The deficit is a reflection of our performance-based economy -- slow growth was its cause, and fast growth will be its cure.

MACROCOSM
Is There a Tech Valuation Headwind?
September 12, 2003
Tech is no bargain, but it's at the center of an investment-led recovery.

MACROCOSM
Hope, Greed, Fear, Worry and the Fed
September 5, 2003
Fed policy will help stocks climb the wall of worry, even if it is entirely absurd.

POLITICAL PULSE
Another Scandal
September 4, 2003
Spitzer's new front is probably a non-event -- but here are the risks you might not have considered.

MACROCOSM
Did the Tax Cuts Pay Dividends?
August 25, 2003
All the evidence is that the tax cuts on dividends and capital gains are performing exactly as predicted.

MACROCOSM
In Synch
August 19, 2003
Earnings revisions and bond yields are telling the same pro-growth story.

INTELLECTUAL AMMO
Fed Cred
August 13, 2003
Did the Fed break its promise to the bond market... or is it just that you can't cheat an honest man?

MACROCOSM
New Dynamics for Equities
August 4, 2003
Earnings recovery is solidly in place, but stocks will have to adapt to a new era of fair valuation.

MACROCOSM
A Phase-Shift in Valuation
July 28, 2003
Stocks and bonds have worked together to collapse the equity risk premium.

FED SHADOW
Bernanke to the Rescue?
July 23, 2003
Bernanke's homage to deflation-fighting will provide only short-term comfort to battered bond bulls.

MACROCOSM
Flies in the Ointment
July 18, 2003
The growth case is compelling, but the markets are pausing to consider the risks.

MACROCOSM
The Whiff of Animal Spirits
July 10, 2003
The resurgence of restructuring activity is the precursor of economic expansion.

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Microsoft's Options Reboot
July 9, 2003
Ending option grants could be the prelude to paying out Microsoft's $46 billion hoard.

FED SHADOW
How Much Will These Free Options Cost?
June 25, 2003
Unworried about inflation, the Fed's trying to gun the economy.

MARKET CALLS
Four Pillars of Wisdom
June 20, 2003
Valuation, monetary policy and tax policy are all in bull-mode. But there's a fourth factor.

POLITICAL PULSE
Mankiw Very Much
June 13, 2003
Dr. Mankiw looks like he'll be a valuable pro-growth member of the Bush team.

MACROCOSM
Aftermath of a Tax Cut Miracle
May 27, 2003
After the dangerous journey to achieving an historic tax cut, can the market let itself enjoy the good news?

MACROCOSM
Another Quarter, Another Crisis?
May 20, 2003
Take a deep breath and have a calm look at the dollar and the coming tax cut.

FED SHADOW
Portrait of the Greenspan Era
May 6, 2003
When it comes to monetary policy, a picture may be worth 100,000 of Alan Greenspan's words.

POLITICAL PULSE
Down Payment on a Miracle
May 5, 2003
Bush's tax cuts went to the House, and are coming out better than ever. But the Senate's another matter.

POLITICAL PULSE
Self-inflicted Damage in the Tax Wars
April 30, 2003
If the administration is going to sell its tax-cuts, it had better change its pitch.

MACROCOSM
Back from the War
April 16, 2003
It's back to business for the economy and for President Bush.

POLITICAL PULSE
The Hanging-Chad Tax-Cut
April 10, 2003
The market doesn't want to wait for Bush's tax-cuts -- but a rush to cut a lousy deal is even worse.

POLITICAL PULSE
Notes from the West Wing
April 3, 2003
The war comes first. Nevertheless, the market underestimates the chances for pro-growth tax-cuts.

MACROCOSM
Tracking the Tax Wars
March 27, 2003
Bush's defeat in the Senate on tax-cuts is a victory -- the question is: what kind of victory?

MARKET CALLS
W's Bottom
March 24, 2003
The bears get their say this week as the war gets real -- but markets have seen the worst.

MACROCOSM
The No-Peace Rally
March 20, 2003
The war has moved from the UN to Iraq, and the fever of uncertainty has broken.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
NASDAQ 5000, Dow 5000
March 10, 2003
The high-water mark of optimism versus today's ebb tide of pessimism.

MACROCOSM
Buffetted
March 6, 2003
Warren Buffett's perplexity reflects the market's paradoxical combination of growth and value plays.

POLITICAL PULSE
Going for Broke?
February 28, 2003
The paradox of Bush's strategy is that he's ramping up political risk as his approval ratings decline.

MACROCOSM
Techstocks: Recovery Play and War Hedge
February 18, 2003
Techstocks have beaten the market this year -- thanks to both economic recovery and the risks of war.

MACROCOSM
Understanding War Risk
February 12, 2003
Yes, the markets fear the risk of war -- but it's a risk with both a downside and an upside.

MACROCOSM
Beyond Iraq
January 27, 2003
Shifts in valuations are hinting that there's growth out there beyond the risk of war.

MACROCOSM
Assessing the Tax-Cut: Part 1 -- The Dividend Windfall
January 22, 2003
Long-term effects aside, here's why a dividend tax-cut would be a bolt from the blue that would boost all stock prices.

MACROCOSM
Microsoft's "Starter Dividend"
January 17, 2003
Bush's tax-cut plan hasn't even been proposed to Congress yet, but it's already starting to work.
 

POLITICAL PULSE
Born-Again Growth Advocacy
January 8, 2003
Bush's stodgy tax plan is blossoming into an important pro-growth initiative.

MACROCOSM
Gameplan for the New Year
January 6, 2003
A macro view of the major US asset classes, and a new Model Position in bonds.

MACROCOSM
Bush's Tax Cuts: Curb Your Enthusiasm
January 2, 2003
Hopes for pro-growth tax policy initiatives are worse than dead -- they've never even been born.

POLITICAL PULSE
A Lott for Markets to Think About
December 16, 2002
There are both big positives and big negatives that could emerge from the Lott crisis -- while we wait, there's big uncertainty.

POLITICAL PULSE
Bush's Growth Deficit 
December 11, 2002
If Stephen Friedman is out of step with Bush's economic ideology, why did Bush pick him in the first place?

MARKET CALLS
The Tech Recovery -- But...
December 6, 2002
Is the NASDAQ saying that tech is back, or just that investors are now more risk tolerant?

MARKET CALLS
Tech Out of Whack, Once Again
November 25, 2002
In the last month's recovery, technology stocks have become extremely overvalued relative to the rest of the market.

MACROCOSM
A Deflation Dichotomy
November 18, 2002
The Fed's finally fighting deflation -- but if deflation is already subsiding, then they're making a whole new world of risk.

MARKET CALLS
Harvey, We Hardly Knew Ye  
November 13, 2002
Harvey Pitt and Robert Herdman were helping companies transition to higher levels of regulatory compliance -- it will be a riskier market without them.

POLITICAL PULSE
Don't Get Swept Away by the Sweep
November 6, 2002
The GOP sweep lessens the odds of two years of worsening policy stagnation. But it's not exactly a third term for Ronald Reagan.

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Resistance is Not Futile
November 5, 2002
In the war on capitalism, the Microsoft decision was an important victory for the capitalists -- because it shows that victory is possible.

MACROCOSM
Will Spring Return in the Growth?
October 30, 2002
Value can only take the stock market so far. Stocks are all about growth.

MARKET CALLS
Until Intel
October 16, 2002
Earnings season was full of pleasant surprises -- until Intel. But was Intel's miss really a surprise.

MARKET CALLS
Godzilla Meets Bambi
October 15, 2002
Capital markets priced for the worst are reacting well to a little good news.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
1001 Bearabian Nights
October 10, 2002
By Monday we could be in the longest bear market in history -- and it was all caused by one man.

MACROCOSM
Earnings Tell the Tale
October 3, 2002
Our anemic "techless recovery" is perfectly reflected in corporate earnings.

MARKET CALLS
Q1 2000 Upside Down?
October 1, 2002
Learning about what hopefully is 2002's bottom by looking at 2000's top.

MARKET CALLS
Let's Play Survivor
September 24, 2002
It's now a game of life and death in techland. For most portfolio managers, what counts is picking the best survivors.

MACROCOSM
911: Why It Matters, Why It Doesn't
September 11, 2002
Understanding the macroeconomic impacts of 911 -- real and imagined, economic and political.

MACROCOSM
NY Minutes: Valuation and Deflation -- No Elation
September 4, 2002
We didn't meet one bull on Wall Street last week, yet equity values are attractive and deflationary pressures are under control.

MARKET CALLS
CEO Certifications: 16,000 Unexploded Landmines
August 14, 2002
Today's deadline is being portrayed as a non-event -- but the certification requirement is worse than you think.

MARKET CALLS
Lifeline Cisco
August 7, 2002
It may no longer be a "wealth creation machine," but Cisco is going to keep Silicon Valley alive for at least another quarter.

MARKET CALLS
The Earnings Party Where Nobody Came
August 2, 2002
The strange dynamics of the past earnings season -- upside surprises, downside revisions, and an uptick for tech.

MARKET CALLS
Eyeing the Hurricane
July 31, 2002
The market's "reflexive" spiral has burned itself out for the moment -- leaving the S&P 500 still significantly undervalued.

MARKET CALLS
Extremes
July 24, 2002
Stocks are extremely cheap and extremely destabilized. But taking a long-term view -- they may really be extremely normal.

MACROCOSM
Value and Chaos
July 22, 2002
The market's cheaper than it's been in 14-1/2 years. But what will it take to break out of this "reflexive" death-spiral?

MARKET CALLS
Dam Lies?
July 17, 2002
When the Treasury Undersecretary says the market is overvalued, you'd better listen -- because the Bush administration is making it so.

POLITICAL PULSE
Stock Options Expense: One Step Ahead of the Law
July 16, 2002
Coca Cola and Washington Post may be making a virtue of necessity by volunteering to expense options -- but they're an example of how free markets can enforce corporate accountability.

POLITICAL PULSE
Triple Witching Hour for the Stock Options Tax-Hike
July 15, 2002
In the super-charged anti-business atmosphere of Washington, the dreaded Levin-McCain stock options bill -- S.1940 -- is at-the-money.

MARKET CALLS
A Techless Recovery?
July 10, 2002
In tech, recovery is elusive and stocks are still rich. The Old Economy is now the engine of recovery -- and it's cheap.

MARKET CALLS
The End of the World[Com]
June 26, 2002
The latest accounting bombshell will have investors wondering "what is reality?" It could create a great buying opportunity.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Excuses, Excuses
June 25, 2002
The "don't fight the Fed" and "super-V superbull" crowds are capitulating -- and that's an opportunity for the rest of us.

MARKET CALLS
Earth to Techstocks: "Your 15 Minutes Are Up"
June 19, 2002
Oracle beats, but the tech sector will still get beat up. The focus of economic recovery is elsewhere.

MARKET CALLS
Normal Valuation: Where Do We Go from Here?
June 11, 2002
The overall market is normally valued for the first time in 5-1/2 years and earnings recovery is at hand -- what are the risks?

MARKET CALLS
Intel: No News is Big News
June 7, 2002
Intel's blockbuster guidance revision shouldn't have been a surprise -- but it may signal the beginning of the end for whacky techstock valuations.

MARKET CALLS
Return to Normalcy?
June 4, 2002
The equity market has finally returned to a normal level of earnings-based valuation... but what's normal? And will the earnings be there?

MACROCOSM
WorldCom: Is There Life after Death?
May 30, 2002
The regulators and the Fed nearly killed WorldCom -- now they may have to try to save it.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Semiconductors: Down By Law
May 22, 2002
Chips aren't just commodities, and it's going to take a lot more than deflation-relief to get the semiconductor industry over the problems created by Moore's Law.

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Stock Options Expense: The Big Truth
May 15, 2002
Investors are insisting that options expense be included in income statements -- but they'll be shocked when they learn how big these expenses really are.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Debating the Valuation Conundrum
May 13, 2002
David Gitlitz doesn't agree that equity valuations got too high in the late 1990s -- but he and Luskin both think they're too high now.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
The New High Plateau: The Valuation Conundrum
May 10, 2002
The best reasons for the current era of high equity valuations aren't very good.

MARKET CALLS
Into the Valley of Death Rides Cisco
May 8, 2002
Cannon to the right of them, cannon to the left of them -- Cisco's report won't be enough to save tech's earnings season.

MACROCOSM
The "E" in the S&P's "V"
May 7, 2002
Tech stocks may be overpriced relative to earnings forecasts. But for the S&P 500, the earnings forecasts themselves are overblown.

MACROCOSM
AO Hell
April 25, 2002
The growth dream is over at AOL. And the rest of the tech sector may be starting to wake up to reality, too.

MARKET CALLS
Mind the Gap
April 24, 2002
The economy still can't generate the earnings recovery that techstocks need. But it's time to take some more profits off the table.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
IBM's Defense Rests
April 18, 2002
Like OJ, IBM says it was framed. But that doesn't mean that it's not guilty.

MACROCOSM
Expectations and Realities for Earnings Season
April 11, 2002
Expectations still run rampant. But this earnings season, reality may get the upper hand.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Can Anybody Here Play This Game?
April 4, 2002
How we can rely on faulty analyst estimates to gauge value in the markets? Because sometimes stock prices are even worse.

MACROCOSM
The Pension Headwind: The Final Tally
April 4, 2002
Fiscal 2001 is now officially over, so we can survey the damage to pension assets last year, and predict the hit to earnings this year.

MARKET CALLS
Tech Hits the Wall
April 3, 2002
Pass the "V"-agra! The steady march of upward earnings revisions from the September lows has stalled out.

MACROCOSM
Up Against the Pension Headwind
March 27, 2002
As corporate earnings attempt to recover in 2002, they face a huge locked-in obstacle from lower pension returns -- no matter how well the market performs.

MARKET CALLS
The NASDAQ's Wyle E. Coyote Recovery
March 21, 2002
There's lots of happy-talk about recovery. But we still say the NASDAQ is fighting the tides of value, risk and history.

POLITICAL PULSE
Beware of Senators Bearing Tax Hikes
March 15, 2002
Don't kid yourself that S.1940 is about earnings transparency. It's all about hidden taxes.

MACROCOSM
Intel: Dead in the Water
March 8, 2002
The economy is supposed to be recovering. So why isn't Intel?

MARKET CALLS
A Gnash Equilibrium?
March 4, 2002
Stocks have been in a violent trading range -- valuation risks still cap the upside, and eternally springing hopes for a "V" recovery provide the floor.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Greenspan's Q&A: Hot Spots and High Points
February 28, 2002
If you didn't catch the Q&A following Greenspan's congressional testimony, here are the lecture notes, annotated and linked.

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Penron II: More Pension Tension
February 27, 2002
Enron's new pension scam will throw light on ugly pension realities across the board.

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Enronic Cleansing: Be Warned
February 22, 2002
The New York Post stories about Cisco are a template for attacking every technology company in America.

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Penron? Truth and Hype about "The Pension Bomb"
February 19, 2002
The impact of pension problems on earnings and balance sheets is bad enough without imagining it's another Enron.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Shorting JGB's: Tricks of the Trade
February 11, 2002
Don't forget that there's a currency play here too -- but you have to go to a little extra trouble to make it.

MARKET CALLS
On the Road to Equilibrium
February 4, 2002
The markets are still out of whack, but the worst excesses of misvaluation have been repaired.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Enron, Krugman, and the Public Intellectuals
January 28, 2002
Paul Krugman and other pundits got splashed with Enron's mud last week. Should anyone care?

THOUGHT CONTAGIONS
Biotech Comes Down With Enronitis
January 24, 2002
The ImClone imPlosion has made a risky sector look even riskier. But that's not all that ails biotech.

MACROCOSM
Sobering Up
January 22, 2002
That New Year's party was fun. But now the markets and the economy are facing a deflationary reality that doesn't have a super-V in it.

FED SHADOW
Greenspan's Message, and Why It Clocked Stocks
January 14, 2002
In both text and subtext, Greenspan's message was bad news for equities.

MARKET CALLS
Don't Blame the Long Bond!
January 7, 2002
The huge gap between bond yields and the "earnings yield" of stocks is all across the curve.

MARKET CALLS
A Little Problem of Reality
January 4, 2002
The stock market is off with a bang for the new year. Can the real world possibly keep up?

FED SHADOW
The 1990s Boom-and-Bust: Learning the Wrong Lessons
December 31, 2001
How can we hope to restore the prosperity of the 1990s when no one understands why it ended?

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Don't Believe Everything You Read Over and Over Again
December 24, 2001
There's a myth out there about the stock market signaling robust recovery. But believing it doesn't make it true.

MARKET CALLS
Rebalancing Act
December 20, 2001
Expect volatility: tomorrow all the major indexes rebalance -- so that means that all the major indexers will rebalance, too.

MARKET CALLS
The Yield Gap, Sector by Sector
December 19, 2001
"V"-mania has afflicted technology stocks -- that's an opportunity both for asset allocators and sector allocators. 

MARKET CALLS
Vay Out of Vack -- Even for a "V"
December 10, 2001
Unless a "V" recovery va-va-va-vooms into earnings and reflation hard and fast, we've got an unbalanced market that favors a shift out of tech stocks and into bonds.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
What Enron's Collapse Doesn't Mean
December 4, 2001
Some people saw Satan's face in the smoke from the World Trade Center. Others see Enron's troubles as a reason not to reform Social Security.

MARKET CALLS
It Could Be Worse... But That Doesn't Mean It'll Get Better
December 3, 2001
We've rallied back from death's door -- but we're still well within the context of recession.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Deflation: Early Hopes, and the Metrics of Headwinds
November 30, 2001
Some smart people are talking about an end to deflation -- but if it keeps going, here are some facts you need to know.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
The Name of the Beast
November 27, 2001
Call it a "recession" or call it "Marvin" -- either way we're just playing a useless name game.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Laffer's Curveball
November 21, 2001
Arthur Laffer must be rolling in his grave. Wait... he's still alive!

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Deflation: The Good, The Bad and The Ugly
November 20, 2001
Sometimes falling prices can be good -- but that's not deflation. When prices fall due to deflation, things get ugly.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Deflation: The Basics
November 19, 2001
Deflation is not falling prices. Deflation is not economic contraction. Deflation is when the Fed screws up.

MARKET CALLS
Cisco’s Twelve-Step Program for Recovering Techstocks
November 6, 2001
Last night we saw a new John Chambers and a new Cisco -- with a new confidence born of having confessed the worst. But the market may not like the truth.

MACROCOSM
After Broken Windows: Open Windows
November 5, 2001
The Microsoft settlement isn't perfect, but it's a victory for the forces of growth and recovery -- and a slap in the face to the enemies of free markets.

THOUGHT CONTAGION
"Get the Hell Out of My Way!"
November 2, 2001
Antitrust laws are a tax -- and there are some signs that there may be a tax cut coming.

MACROCOSM
Beyond Broken Windows: What if the Market is Right?
October 29, 2001
The market seems to think a world at war with terror is good for business. It's time to start understanding why.

MARKET CALLS
Portfolio Secrets of Neutron Jack
October 25, 2001
In hard times, the most powerful companies don't just survive. They get stronger. And those are the stocks you want.

MACROCOSM
It’s Not the End of the World -- Just “As We Knew It”
October 22, 2001
We've ridden out the crisis. But  we're still in a world of risk.

MARKET CALLS
Uncle Sam Wants You... To Make Your Quarter!
October 19, 2001
It's a CEO's patriotic duty in time of war. And in war, truth is always the first victim.

MARKET CALLS
Theme Song: It Jihad To Be You
October 18, 2001
How to play the defense theme -- and some thoughts about when to stop playing it.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Back Off Floyd, Valuations Aren't That High!
October 16, 2001
Usually financial hocus-pocus is designed to make stocks look cheap -- but here's some sleight of hand designed to make them look expensive.

INTELLECTUAL AMMUNITION
Of Caterpillars and Capital Gains 
October 10, 2001
To really stimulate the economy, we have to coax investors to take risks again. And the way to do that is with a capital-gains tax cut.

MACROCOSM
Bombing, or Defusing a Bomb?
October 9, 2001
Yesterday's "attack" on Afghanistan had no impact on the market because this isn't a "war."

MACROCOSM
Report Card on The Rally
October 5, 2001
This rally's been brewing for two weeks, and Cisco's good news is just a small part of it. But should we trust it?

MARKET CALLS
Sky High Valuations -- From Denial to Bargaining
October 3, 2001
You can tell yourself that today's price earnings multiples are so high because of low interest rates. Or you can face the truth. Your call...

MARKET CALLS
The Jihad Portfolio Marches On
October 2, 2001
As America gears up for war, we keep on gearing up a portfolio designed to go to war, too.

MARKET CALLS
Introducing the Jihad Portfolio
October 1, 2001
It's always a war out there for investors -- the difference is, now it's a real one. Ignore that reality at your peril.

MARKET CALLS
Why Won't Valuations Come Down? They Will!
September 28, 2001
The S&P 500 is still priced for irrational exuberance. And denial is a ribber in Egypt.

MARKET CALLS
Sweet Nothing
September 26, 2001
Yesterday the world stopped and took a breath -- for the first time in two weeks. It was wonderful!

MACROCOSM
Small Steps Out of the Crisis
September 25, 2001
The markets now crave stability. We got just a little bit of it yesterday, and the result was a huge rally.

MACROCOSM
Fear Itself
September 24, 2001
The markets are in a self-feeding cycle of fear as the economy implodes -- and that's how the terrorists can win.

MACROCOSM
Not Quite Everything in Moderation
September 21, 2001
Bush's go-slow approach on the military/diplomatic front is exactly the right thing to do. But we've got to go pedal-to-the-metal on our economic response to terrorism.

FED SHADOW
Alan Greenspan's Perfect Storm
September 19, 2001
Yesterday Greenspan's rate-targeting mechanism totally ruptured -- and it took the bond market down with it.

FED SHADOW
The Cut of Five Thousand Deaths
September 18, 2001
Greenspan's still playing follow-the-market when the market desperately needs a leader.

MARKET CALLS
The Week Ahead
September 17, 2001
An analytical framework for understanding the markets in one of history's riskiest weeks.

MACROCOSM
Rebuild -- And Send Them a Message
September 14, 2001
Here's one way to tell the terrorists where America stands!

MACROCOSM
What Does It Mean If "This Means War" Means War?
September 13, 2001
Markets are galvanized by a crisis -- when it's over. But what if it takes years to be over?

MACROCOSM
Rebuild! Bigger and Better than Ever!
September 12, 2001
We put a man on the moon -- now let's rebuild the World Trade Center in a year... a mile high!

MACROCOSM
In Crisis, Opportunity
September 12, 2001
Tuesday's horrors could be the catalyst the markets and the economy have needed -- the reawakening of "animal spirits" from the ashes of the World Trade Center.

FED SHADOW
Financial Fallout: Here Comes the Rate Cut
September 11, 2001
This morning's terrorist attack will surely trigger new liquidity from the Fed.

MARKET CALLS
Get Over It!
September 11, 2001
The bear market won't be over till investors are honest with themselves about the post-boom-and-bust realities.

MARKET CALLS
When Booms Go Bust
September 10, 2001
This is no ordinary business cycle. It's more like a business cyclone -- and policy response had better realize that!

MARKET CALLS
I Read the News Today, Oh Boy
September 7, 2001
Oh boy. The US government doesn't want to break up Microsoft. Oh boy. Intel affirms in the midrange of its guidance. Oh boy.

MARKET CALLS
Work Hard for the Money
September 6, 2001
The market -- and investors -- are going to have to sweat for every penny of upside in the future.

MACROCOSM
Blockbusted Flush
September 5, 2001
A merger can be an exciting catalyst for the market. And then there's Hewlett Packard and Compaq.

MARKET CALLS
No Catalyst, No Bull Market
September 4, 2001
Without a catalyst, the best we can hope for is stabilization. And that ain't much.